Manfred comments on [Link] The Bayesian argument against induction. - Less Wrong Discussion
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Comments (27)
Well, since I was horribly wrong when I thought I saw a flaw in the math, let me instead look at the conclusions, and maybe I won't be horribly wrong :D
This is not what the equation says above. Yes, p(AvB|B)=1. But there's another term on that side too: -p(AvB), which has to be mentioned. If it could be ignored, then B would increase the probability of A for any choice of A and B!
How's this: to the extent that B increases the probability of A, p(A v ~B) - p(A v ~B|B) is less than 1 - p(A v B).
Not deductive, I know, but accurate.
This is a bit circular. If something is really independent of B, it will not change at all if we condition on B. Nearly all things that are logical consequences, though, aren't independent. Maybe the author had some example in mind while writing?