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David_Gerard comments on Attempt to explain Bayes without much maths, please review - Less Wrong Discussion
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Hmm, you're right. And the audience I was thinking of was people who, like myself, tend to visualise these things (though the diagrams in my head are maddeningly vague when I try to capture them).
My deeper pedagogical problem, though, is that equations - any equations, even "2+2=4" is pushing it - generate ugh fields. This is more than a little problematic when explaining mathematical concepts.