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Manfred comments on Attempt to explain Bayes without much maths, please review - Less Wrong Discussion

12 Post author: David_Gerard 06 August 2011 09:24AM

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Comment author: Manfred 08 August 2011 01:27:04AM *  2 points [-]

(This connects to the Bayesian view of causality, at least so far as I understand it: reasoning about causation involves reasoning about interventions and not merely about observations. Observed correlation can only tell us about statistical, rather than causal, regularities; in order to discover authentic causes, we have to consider intervention.)

You should read the first few chapters of Causality by Judea Pearl. He details how you can get causal information from static data (if you ignore "just so" correlations with measure 0). Causality (both the book and the pattern) is cool.