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AdeleneDawner comments on Judging the intent of others favorably - Less Wrong Discussion
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Comments (9)
Nitpick:
Nope.
Consider a deck of 10 cards; 7 blue and 3 red. You write down a list of 10 predictions, in order, and the cards are dealt out; for every card that matches the corresponding prediction you get a reward based on the card color.
If you make 10 blue predictions, and blue cards are worth 7 points, you get 7 correct answers and 49 points.
If you make 10 red predictions, you get 3 correct answers, and red cards have to be worth 16.33 for you to break even.
Fixed. I meant to add a cent to red after making it fair, but accidentally set it up such that the .7 chance one got the seven cents rather than the three in the fair case.