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lessdazed comments on Take heed, for it is a trap - Less Wrong Discussion
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If at this point you don't agree that the probability is 0.5 I'd like to hear your number.
P(A) = 2^-K(A).
As for ~A, see: http://lesswrong.com/lw/vs/selling_nonapples/ (The negation of a complex proposition is much vaguer, and hence more probable (and useless))