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multifoliaterose comments on [LINK] Brief Discussion of Asteroid & Nuclear Risk from paper by Hellman - Less Wrong Discussion
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The asteroids vs nukes comparison isn't quite apples-to-apples. "Failure of deterrence" does not necessarily imply human extinction, or temporary collapse of civilization, or most people dying. One needs further premises about escalation, spread, nuclear winter, human social resilience, etc.
Note also that Hellman's calculation (however rough) is for a Cuban Missile crisis type scenario which would be more likely to escalate/spread than e.g. a terrorist attack.