I'm going to go ahead and generalize from one example. While technically a 'success' since I am aware of Less Wrong, I would say I'm right on the border between the group of people who read LW and those who wouldn't. I share an interest in rationality (and somewhat less so with AI) but rest of the LW 'community knowledge' is very foreign to me. I never really read or watched science fiction (beyond maybe Sliders and the X-Files) and am only barely aware that fan-fiction exists . I've never had trouble socially and rarely feel awkward. The jargon is, at times, distancing but I think ultimately worth it. (The inherent trade-off between efficiency/precision and accessibility.) I imagine (with some prejudice) that LW is populated with people who refer to themselves as 'gamers' or who go LARPing or play Dungeon and Dragons (<- I think this is the first time I've ever typed the word 'Dungeon') or enjoy Monty Python. Things which, in my mind, are classified as 'nerd/geek/dork' things. (I've never quite understood the differences between these appellations.)
This, for me, is a very strange and alien world. Most (all?) groups have a cannon of knowledge/shared culture that you pretty much need to know to fit in. W.r.t. the mathematics and statistics, I'm right on board. Even a lot of the science I am up to speed on (or can become so). But I don't know all the other stuff, and my only incentive to learn it is to navigate LW world. I don't mean for any of this to be insulting, but I think if LW is to move forward, we are probably going to need to attract people like me, who also might have these stereotypes and prejudices. I don't know what the solution might be, but that's my perspective.
I'm definitely in the cluster of people you're describing (though my sci-fi background is pretty lacking), but I haven't noticed any particular references to them in most posts. I hope I'm not just totally blind...
Where are you seeing the cultural references? Comments? Do you mean the transhumanisty stuff?
I've been having a bit of a back-and-forth with a friend about what appears to be a charisma problem with the SIAI, and was hoping you lovely folks had thoughts on the matter. My friend was going through the Eliezer Q&A videos, specifically Question #7, "What's your advice for Less Wrong readers who want to help save the human race?" He typed up a transcript for Eliezer's answer, and went on to say:
He went on to mention that he really likes Eliezer's writings, and that his issue rests with the verbal skills of SIAI's leadership, not with the quality of their works.
I replied:
I also suggested a couple possible (though rather outlandish) ways to make an organization wildly popular. Specifically, to hire a marketing researcher like Frank Luntz to figure out what talking points would win the hearts and minds of the greatest number of people, or alternately to get major brand loyalties by having a cult figure like Steve Jobs representing the SIAI. Of course, I am stating this much more eloquently than I did in the email.
His reply deserves full posting here (with his permission, of course):
The question is now open. Does SIAI have a PR problem? If so, is it due to finances, lack of talent, or something else? Is there an Eternal September issue with watering down the brand (would you support the SIAI if they started investing heavily in advertising campaigns, or would you get a bit suspicious?)? Should they pay Frank Luntz to figure out what transhumanism terms work best with your average family? My friend and I are dying to know.