For PB, you need relatively precise predictions. What exactly do you mean by 'succeed'?
I was thinking of people making a several predictions on different benchmarks they have set for themselves and by which year they will or won't be achieved. Take for instance the criteria for what they call "the Poseidon award":
* Has at least 50 full-time residents.
* Is financially self-sufficient.
* Offers seastead real estate on the open market.
* Has de-facto political autonomy.
Which seastead institute hopes to give out by 2015.
That would be a good place to start making predictions on.
Recently the relatively awesome entrepreneur invested 1.25 million USD into this (seasteading institute website here).
It seems such a wonderful concept, finally somewhere where new forms of government could be tried out. But I'm just wondering how in the world they hope to deal with existing governments since their reaction to any kind of serious alternatives, especially one that either economically or ideologically presented a significant challenge, is bound to not be positive.
I was just wondering what LWer thoughts are on this matter? Also has there been any discussion of seasteading in the past that I've missed? Also I'm wondering if anyone would hazard to perhaps offer a prediction or judge how likley this is to succeed (maybe on predictionbook)?