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hegemonicon comments on Free research help, editing and article downloads for LessWrong - Less Wrong Discussion

55 Post author: jsalvatier 06 September 2011 09:13PM

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Comment author: hegemonicon 05 February 2012 02:50:44AM *  0 points [-]

Thanks for looking at it.

Probability is on a per player basis (ie: each turn, a player has a chance p for detecting each undetected player). I'll edit this so it's more clear.

For LK (as well as LR and L_P), the term outside the summation is essentially (probability the player survives the whole game) * (game length). It's necessary since the game is of fixed length, and the summation is adding (probability of dying on turn x) * (turn x). Consider if the probability of detection is zero, and players will never die - without the term outside the summation, the expected lifetime calculation will return zero.

Comment author: jsalvatier 14 February 2012 04:02:23AM 0 points [-]

One more comment:

Is P(K survives turn i) correct? The formula assumes that the chances of surviving are all independent, but I'm not sure that would be true.

I didn't see anything else that stood out to me.

What are you trying to learn or show with the model?