You're looking at Less Wrong's discussion board. This includes all posts, including those that haven't been promoted to the front page yet. For more information, see About Less Wrong.

grouchymusicologist comments on Safety can be dangerous - Less Wrong Discussion

4 Post author: PhilGoetz 07 September 2011 05:24AM

You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.

Article Navigation

Comments (35)
Tags: risk rationality safety

Comments (35)

You are viewing a single comment's thread. Show more comments above.

Comment author: grouchymusicologist 07 September 2011 06:41:00AM *  5 points [-]

symmetrical error (eg., a predicted category 3 storm is equally likely to come out category 2 or category 4)

Probably not a good heuristic, since category 2 storms are four times more common than category 4 storms. Not sure how much this affects the calculations, but FWIW.

Powered by Reddit Powered by Reddit