I don't think this addresses what Eliezer's point actually it is. The point is that the general region of evidence that causes one to locate a hypothesis and not have a hideously large amount of evidence for it is a pretty small region. I think Eliezer is incorrect here, but the problem with the argument is subtle and requires careful examination of different historical discoveries. Let's look at three historical examples and one example unfolding now. First, let's look at Kepler's discovery that the orbits of the planets were ellipses. Given the very accurate data Kepler had access to thanks to Tycho Brahe's careful examination Kepler could see as soon as he looked at the data that ellipses fit really well. Moreover, if one accepted the idea and looked at the orbits one saw this really amazing pattern Kepler's third law which related the orbits of different planets to each other, an incredible display of an apparent relationship between the different planets, something the like of which had never been seen before in any other model. We all love to talk about Galileo but the truth is that it was Kepler's work which was the death blow for other theories. It not only was mathematically simple (ok, it used the most advanced math of the time but didn't have the hundreds of adhoc parameters that other models like the various Ptolemaic models, the Copernican model, Tycho's model, or the many hybrid models floating around at the time (some people wanted Venus or Mercury to orbit the sun. This is rarely discussed now as part of the history even though it was one of the most common views. Note that this is due in part because Galileo decided not to actually address this approach at all. So talking about it doesn't fit in with the amazing Galileo narrative). So once one saw the data one immediately knew it worked. Next, consider Newton's discovery of gravity. Again, this required the most advanced math of the time. But, Newton was able to show that if one believed his law