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khafra comments on 9/11 as mindkiller - Less Wrong Discussion
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That's a bit confusing. You've got at least 20 IQ points on me, and far more practice at bayescraft; but I saw our disproportionate response and its failure coming by that afternoon. Cringely is hardly the most prescient of pundits; even in his focus of technology. But two days later, he described in detail the coming disaster America would choose. Did we simply get lucky with a temporarily epistemically useful ideology?
I don't know where you are getting the 20 IQ point estimate from, but I doubt it. I also don't have much practice at "Bayescraft" and certainly didn't a decade ago. Cringely's response seems to only focus on the airline aspects not the war issues.
I'm not sure what ideology you are referring to in this context.
In any event, I suspect that people here overestimate both the advantage of intelligence and the advantage of rationality in making predictions about the world.
Overestimate the advantages to making the best prediction in a field of predictors, are right about the advantages to avoid making the worst prediction in a field of predictors.
I don't understand what you mean. Can you expand?
Rationality prevents you from thinking a Soviet invasion of Poland followed by a break in US-Soviet relations is more likely than a break in US-Soviet relations. It doesn't help much in estimating either.