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Alicorn comments on Fix My Head - Less Wrong Discussion
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I was thinking I'd just go to the doctor and ask to be tested for celiac. Since apparently the tests don't work if you haven't been eating gluten lately. Will that suffice?
Help me out with the odds: if you risk $100 how much would I be risking?
You'd be risking an amount of your choosing up to a maximum of $33 1/3.
I'll take a round thirty against your ninety, is that okay?
Apologies, but Molybdenumblue bet against half my limit threshold before you, which makes the combination of these two above my limit. Also, in a comment before that I specified a 10-to-25 ratio (to make myself favor the bet, rather than be indifferent). I can bet 20 against 50 under the same terms I gave her; is that okay?
I have an appointment tomorrow (although I don't know if they will test me that very day or not; it may not be sufficiently routine). Molybdenumblue offered to withdraw, and I'm not very pleased with moving the goalposts from the initial odds ratio you'd offered (I'd've taken my $20 against your $50 if that were your original offer, but changing it later makes a social negotiation module in my brain complain). Do you want to bet my $30 versus your $90 or not?
Suggested parameters: I will get tested for celiac. If the test comes back positive, you win; if it comes back negative, I win; if for some reason the doctor thinks I can't reasonably have celiac and won't test me for it, the bet's off; if I turn out to have some non-celiac condition like an allergy that nevertheless means I have to avoid gluten/wheat, bet is off; if the doctor wants to pursue other possible explanations for my headaches first and one of them turns out to be correct, I win; if the test comes back inconclusive and the doctor tells me to go without gluten for a period of time such that I'm willing to try it, then the bet turns out according to the results of the dietary test; if the doctor says I need to try going without gluten for six months or something really intrusive like that without compelling evidence that I have celiac, I'm not going to do that, and the bet is off. If none of these conditions obtains by New Year's, bet is off.
Accepted.
(I edited in another clause about the ambiguous case where I have, like, a wheat allergy or something else that is similar to but not identical to celiac; I can revise that if you want.)
Accepted. (I think this case coming up is very improbable.)
Sprue screening came back in the mail today. Negative. Do you want to see a scan of it, or just paypal me the ninety bucks? alicorn24@gmail.com is the paypal address :)
bread bread bread yay bread bread bread yay
Payment sent, with my condolences, as this means you still don't have a diagnosis and have to keep being unhealthy and miserable.
At this point, I would: * Crank the level of detail of your diet and headache logging all the way up. Note times, note serving sizes, and try to get everything, including snacks and water. * Get the tools for testing blood pressure and blood sugar, to see if these are different whie you have a headache than while at baseline. (These tests are worth considerably less if they are performed in a doctor's office.) * Look up the false negative rate of the particular test you had and compute a posterior probability (starting from my 75% bet and updating down). If it's high enough to justify (or if there's nothing else left to try), go on a low-gluten diet for a week. * Test CronoDAS's Ibuprofen-rebound theory with a longer detoxing period * Try changing many things at once, by adopting an entirely new set of staple foods for 2 weeks
But most of all, just remember: sooner or later you will figure this out, and when you do, your life and subjective well-being will take a dramatic upswing.
When you saw the doctor did ey have any other theories about your various mysterious maladies such as the headaches?
Any news?
Not yet. I should be getting it soon, supposedly.
If this is a problem I can withdraw.
Minimum (you'd hardly want to risk $100 for $1 on a 95% probability).