Other people have already said most of what there is to be said, but there is also this:

Presumably your chances of success this time are not affected by the next one being a failure, so P(1S|FNT) is just P(S) = 0.97.

Not causally affected, but possibly correlated. Or anticorrelated. At any rate, the fact that the future does not causally affect the present does not establish the probabilistic independence of 1S and FNT.