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Emile comments on Bayesian exercise - Less Wrong Discussion
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Imagine that your "component test and guesswork" is launching shuttle after shuttle, and seeing how many blow up. You could get the 1% figure by
Even though both could be described as "1% likely to fail", it's clear that you have much more confidence in that figure in the second scenario; observing one extra successful launch will shift your confidence around more in the first scenario than in the second.
As others said, you should have a probability distribution over the frequency of failure (a Beta distribution I believe), that should peak near 1%, but the peak will be much sharper in the second scenario than in the first.