Are you arguing that he's more likely to torture them if you give him the money, that the probabilities are the same to within one part in 3^^^^3, or that since it's not a dice, probability works fundamentally differently?
My response was assuming the first. The second one is ridiculous, and I don't think anyone would consider that if it weren't for the bias of giving round numbers for probabilities. If it's the third one, I'd suggest reading probability is in the mind. You don't know which side the die will land on, this is no different than not knowing what kind of a person the character is.
suppose it's more likely that he'll torture 3^^^^3 people if you give him the money
That's a different problem than Pascal's Wager. Taking it back to the original, it would be like saying "Convert to Christianity pro forma for a chance at heaven rather than no chance of heaven, ignoring all other magical options." The problem with this isn't the quantities of utility involved, it's the assumption that a god who cares about such conversions to Christianity is the only option for a divine, rather than a God of Islam who would burn Christian conve...
Today's post, Pascal's Mugging: Tiny Probabilities of Vast Utilities was originally published on 19 October 2007. A summary (taken from the LW wiki):
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