Would it be proper for courts to convict based on this kind of result from an application of Bayes’s Theorem, assuming that said analysis had been subjected to rigorous scrutiny and appeared highly convincing to the jury?
It would be no different than other cases of conviction or lack thereof under similar odds. Whether people who probably guilty but have an X% chance of being innocent go free or not should not depend on how jurors concluded X.
But it seems quite bizarre that somebody might be convicted purely on a statistical basis, i.e. based on a favoured Bayesian prior.
And what about politically controversial statistics and priors? Is there really any particular reason why a Bayesian shouldn't have a significantly higher prior probability that members of certain ethnic or religious groups commit certain crimes (whatever the reasons for that may be), based on government statistics? And then convict them at a relatively high rate based on this (assuming convictions using Bayesian priors don't c...
This is an interesting article talking about the use of bayes in british courts and efforts to improve how statistics are used in court cases. Probably worth keeping an eye on. It might expose more people to bayes if it becomes common and thus portrayed in TV dramas.