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gwern comments on Peter Thiel warns of upcoming (and current) stagnation - Less Wrong Discussion

24 Post author: SilasBarta 04 October 2011 05:30PM

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Comment author: gwern 04 October 2011 07:01:18PM 9 points [-]

FWIW, Thiel also makes an interesting connection between stagnation and the many recent speculative bubbles in "The Optimistic Thought Experiment".

Comment author: JoshuaZ 04 October 2011 07:08:11PM 3 points [-]

This seems to be an interesting idea but seems to be off. A lot of historical bubbles have occurred. Many historical bubbles like the infamous Tulip bubble were by many metrics a lot larger than the modern bubbles.

Comment author: gwern 04 October 2011 07:23:12PM 3 points [-]

A lot of bubbles over many centuries, perhaps, but without a data series how can one say it's off? After all, we've hit 2 acknowledged bubbles in as many decades (notice that I don't say 'centuries' or 'half-centuries'), and there are more controversial recent ones (commodity bubble with oil or gold? 'Green' stocks? China?) which would push the count up even higher.

Comment author: asr 04 October 2011 10:31:49PM 6 points [-]

I'm not sure that one per decade is unusually many. The US had a lot of bubbles in the 19th century -- canal bubbles, real estate bubbles, railroad bubbles, etc. In all these cases (as with today), there was a real innovation underneath, that bedazzled investors into funding instances of it that didn't make sense.