JoshuaZ comments on Peter Thiel warns of upcoming (and current) stagnation - Less Wrong Discussion
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Ok. Wow. I knew there was a discrepancy. I didn't realize that the differences were that massive, That's um... wow. Phrased that way I now have to wonder how more people didn't during the Cold War realize how much the USSR was being hobbled by its own problems. This undermines my claim quite a lot.
This still seems to be a function of the resource level involved and how much technology is required. If playing Daniel Boone in space took only a few hundred thousand dollars I suspect that a lot of people would jump at it.
As to Asimov, yes that's a valid point. He was writing far outside his field. He's not however the only example of this, merely the most prominent. Sagan was also in that hybrid zone of science and media but a bit closer (having actually worked on probes and aerospace ideas including a military proposal to detonate a nuke on the moon) and he made similar comments.But, you make a good point. It seems that the rank and file engineers were not nearly as optimistic. So the media point seems stronger than I stated.
Do we have reason to think the Nobel process was really non-political enough to take those numbers at face value?
As an example, I've read that in the early 20th century the Nobel physics committee deliberately decided to focus on awarding prizes for developments in atomic & nuclear physics instead of other fields like astrophysics or atmospheric physics. I can't remember why; I want to say it's because Sweden happened to be particularly strong in atomic physics at the time, but I'm much less sure of that. (I'm annoyed that I can't find a reference to double check this now.)
I just got lucky and found a reference in Harriet Zuckerman's Scientific Elite: Nobel Laureates in the United States:
It's hard to make a comprehensive selection of relevant extracts, but here are some bits & pieces, since the article's paywalled:
It goes on. More briefly, Swedish physicists' attempts to boost their own fields led to politicking within the Nobel Prize in Physics committee that shortchanged astrophysics, atmospheric physics, and physics that was too theoretical.
When Asimov wrote a book on anything, be it Shakespeare, the Bible, or physics, I expect him to have more of substance to say than most experts in the field. He wrote a series of books on physics that are still used today, and he was a biochemist.
I think I agree with you about Daniel Boone in space, that if the (personal) resource costs were more tolerable we'd start seeing it. What I'm missing originally is the number of people willing to pay even millions of dollars to simply skim the surface of our atmosphere, a healthy portion of which don't seem primarily motivated by status. So yes, you're coorect that we'd probably have had a lunar colony if it were feasible to deliver people at fairly low cost; in fact, if the cost is low enough, I can see this as highly likely both for Daniel Boones and high risk research.
It would not so much matter if an accident released a virus into the lunar vacuum or obliterated several square miles of lunar surface, but we might have found it useful to station researchers or at least maintenance there to carry this out without communications lag or other issues.