You're looking at Less Wrong's discussion board. This includes all posts, including those that haven't been promoted to the front page yet. For more information, see About Less Wrong.

sam0345 comments on Peter Thiel warns of upcoming (and current) stagnation - Less Wrong Discussion

24 Post author: SilasBarta 04 October 2011 05:30PM

You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.

Comments (119)

You are viewing a single comment's thread. Show more comments above.

Comment author: sam0345 07 October 2011 05:56:33AM *  5 points [-]

The most recent big innovation in energy is fracking. Clearly this has experienced regulatory headwinds, and a pile of environmentalists are looking for rationalizations to stop it, but on the whole, looks to me like a reasonable rate of innovation in energy, which is in substantial part compensating for the exhaustion of hydrocarbon resources. Doubtless we could do better, but it is not obvious that to me that energy innovation is slower than would reasonably be expected in a mature field.

A good measure of innovation is new therapeutic molecular entities, because one can simply count them. By that measure, innovation in the west and Japan has slowed down drastically and alarmingly, though China and Taiwan are speeding up.

I observe ads by Singapore promising a more favorable regulatory environment for drug development. They don't have a drug research industry and are hoping for one. This suggests the existence of an unfavorable regulatory environment for drug development. It is clear that western development of new therapeutic molecular entities has slowed alarmingly.