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SilasBarta comments on Peter Thiel warns of upcoming (and current) stagnation - Less Wrong Discussion

24 Post author: SilasBarta 04 October 2011 05:30PM

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Tags: technology economics thiel future politics

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Comment author: SilasBarta 22 November 2012 08:24:50PM *  0 points [-]

"Fictional evidence" is, indeed, not evidence of the dangers presented in the fiction. But, in the aggregate, it is evidence of the common fears of the population -- of getting shot, of living a life of drudgery (by presenting a hero who doesn't), and of being hindered by information cut-off.

I would say, then, that the proper way to interpret the washing machine by my heuristic is to look at it as something that takes people slightly closer to living the heroic/fun lives of the protagonist. The internet, by contrast, obviates the entire problem class of information deficiency.

So you're right that there are no books whose plot elements revolve around "washing clothes time-sucks", but most stories casually assume away the slings and arrows of everyday drudgery (home upkeep, childcare). The extent to which a technology makes these dreams a reality is a measure of the relative significance (or, for an inversion, evidence of dystopia as in Brave New World.)

Comment author: satt 23 November 2012 02:25:07AM 1 point [-]

"Fictional evidence" is, indeed, not evidence of the dangers presented in the fiction. But, in the aggregate, it is evidence of the common fears of the population

Yes, and I reckon it's biased evidence of those fears (and the fears in turn are biased indicators of real world importance).

I would say, then, that the proper way to interpret the washing machine by my heuristic is to look at it as something that takes people slightly closer to living the heroic/fun lives of the protagonist. The internet, by contrast, obviates the entire problem class of information deficiency.

Putting aside my quibbles with the heuristic itself, I think this still overrates the Internet, which fails to fill in information gaps as modest as "where did I put my keys?", and underrates the washing machine, which allows us to assume away an entire afternoon of drudgery each week or so. (In fact, household appliances in general can account for most of the 20th century rise in American married women who work, a truly massive social change.)

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