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RichardKennaway comments on Thinking in Bayes: Light - Less Wrong Discussion

6 Post author: atucker 10 October 2011 04:08AM

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Comment author: RichardKennaway 10 October 2011 10:10:33AM *  7 points [-]

In order to show that H causes e you would have to show that the probabilities always factor as P(e & H) = P(H)P(e|H) and not as P(e & H) = P(e)P(H|e).

Both of these are mathematical identities. It is not possible for one to hold and not the other; both are always true.

Causal analysis of probabilities is a lot more complicated.

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