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Bobertron comments on Thinking in Bayes: Light - Less Wrong Discussion

6 Post author: atucker 10 October 2011 04:08AM

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Comment author: Bobertron 10 October 2011 11:41:26AM 2 points [-]

It might be a good idea to put Bayes' Theorem into English (I haven't seen that anywhere). My attempt would be this:

To judge the hypothesis H given the evidence e, you need to know how well H explains e AND the base-rate of H AND compare that with all alternative hypotheses.

So even if you don't have any numbers to plug into Bayes' Theorem, the theorem is still a nerdy reminder not to neglect base-rate and to think of alternative explanations.