emic-and-etic comments on Thinking in Bayes: Light - Less Wrong Discussion
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Thinking is itself an act that modifies your subjective probabilities - whatever reference class you pick."...persuasion is powerfully affected by the amount of self-talk that occurs in response to a message.[2] The degree to which the self-talk supports the message and the confidence that recipients express in the validity of that self-talk further support the cognitive response model."