Sometime, I'll have to look up statistics for crashes per mile driven (perhaps adjusted for age, etc) to see if I am actually badly estimating my driving ability. After my first car-crash, there must have been some serious learning done in the unconscious parts of my mind, since my motorway-driving speed dropped by more than 10mph afterwards, almost overnight. I don't consciously remember thinking that driving was any more dangerous though. I think my judgement of my driving skill might have dropped, from 'maybe average' to 'probably below average' which I notice every time I read the 'most people think they're above average drivers' factlet. Hopefully auto-driving vehicles will become common soon enough that reality will not have to injure me more to provide further learning experiences.

Having said that, I'll see if I notice the preferentially updating in one direction effect in myself.