I have a strong sense that Job's plan was to try the non-invasive/wholistic approach until the cancer progressed. ...Consistent with this hypothesis, Jobs had the surgery as soon as it was determined the cancer was growing rather than shrinking It was still a textbook case -- got cancer, had surgery, now in remission, and Jobs gave a thank-goodness-that's-over speech.

My understanding is that the prognosis for the disease is very good if you catch it early, and poor if you wait too long, and that Jobs caught it early, but waited too long. So he was where the prognosis was good, and let himself get to where the prognosis was bad. Looks like a mistake to me. I don't know how closely he was monitoring his disease, but the assumptions above are evidence for "not too closely". A high enough prior that he would do the sensible thing would overcome this evidence.