Seems quite coherent.
A strong case does not imply an important effect size.
It is far more likely that today you will be directly affected by the gravity of Pluto than that today you will trip on the sidewalk. A case explaining why I thought you likely to trip today would be weak and full of holes, while my case for gravity is much stronger.
The OP seems to me like a fixation on a very small thing, a story of why a factor should have an effect, totally ignoring most other factors on the effect and most other effects of the factor.
Why is this down voted? It is a decent point.
However I feel obliged to point out that most of the stuff posted on LW/OB written in this style ("saying complex things with simple words) dosen't much bother to deal with effect size.
Edit: Can downvoters of these two posts please explain why this particular comment is wrong? I really can't see it.
A recent entry from the West Hunters blog (written by Gregory Cochran and Henry Harpending with whom most LWers are probably already familiar with) caught my eye:
Seems quite coherent. It meshes well with findings that the more children parents have the less they subscribe to nurture, since they finally, possibly for the first time ever, get some hands on experience with the nurture (nurture as in stuff like upbringing not nurture as in lead paint) versus. nature issue. Note that today urban, educated, highly intelligent people are less likley to have children than possibly ever, how is this likley to effect intellectual fashions?
Perhaps somewhat related to this is also the transition in the past 150 years (the time frame depending on where exactly you live) from agricultural communities, that often raised livestock to urban living. What exactly "variation" and "heredity" might mean in a intuitive way thus comes another source short with no clear replacement.