What? When something becomes less deadly, its frequency increases
Not necessarily. If an allele has no selection pressure on it then we should expect the frequency to be as likely to go up as it will be to go down. The situation is more complicated when one has multiple alleles interacting, but as a rough approximation in non-pathological contexts this should still be true. Since schizophrenia is largely genetic, we should expect the frequency to stay about the same.
There are some exceptional cases to this sort of logic. If for example one has a trait that is often inflicted by the environment (say deafness or blindness) then one should expect as it becomes less deadly that more people will survive with the trait and so the percentage with it will go up. But schizophrenia doesn't seem to act that way.
So, without a very detailed analysis, if the deleterious effects of schizophrenia have been reduced we should expect the percentage of the population that has it to stay roughly constant. However, if there are alleles which have positive selection effects by themselves but which have deleterious effects when found together (a likely scenario for a complicated mental trait like schizophrenia), then it may be that reduced negative selection pressure on schizophrenia makes those alleles have an equilibrium ratio in the population that has moved up. In that context, one would expect to see more schizophrenics.
The upshot is that without a lot more data about the underlying genetics, predicting an increase seems unjustified.
ETA: Curious about cause for downvote. Everything above is essentially what one will get in an intro genetics course. Nothing above should be controversial. Is this being downvoted as too trivial?
If an allele has no selection pressure on it then we should expect the frequency to be as likely to go up as it will be to go down.
If an allele exists currently at frequency X, and the selection pressure on it changes upwards, what should we expect? The frequency to increase. Of course it is possible for the frequency to decrease, and I made no comments on the variance of that expectation.
if the deleterious effects of schizophrenia have been reduced we should expect the percentage of the population that has it to stay roughly constant.
Why is this th...
A recent entry from the West Hunters blog (written by Gregory Cochran and Henry Harpending with whom most LWers are probably already familiar with) caught my eye:
Seems quite coherent. It meshes well with findings that the more children parents have the less they subscribe to nurture, since they finally, possibly for the first time ever, get some hands on experience with the nurture (nurture as in stuff like upbringing not nurture as in lead paint) versus. nature issue. Note that today urban, educated, highly intelligent people are less likley to have children than possibly ever, how is this likley to effect intellectual fashions?
Perhaps somewhat related to this is also the transition in the past 150 years (the time frame depending on where exactly you live) from agricultural communities, that often raised livestock to urban living. What exactly "variation" and "heredity" might mean in a intuitive way thus comes another source short with no clear replacement.