No. This doesn't follow.
I suspect I'm being unclear. I'm not discussing a state where we have good knowledge of the underlying mechanics, but one where we have some original frequency of a heritable condition, and then we make people with that condition / their relatives more likely to procreate than they were before. The equilibrium has shifted, and it has shifted upwards. We don't need to know the strength of the selection pressures (positive and negative) or their mechanisms to make that prediction; we just know that the scales were probably balanced before, and we pulled some weight off of one side. The scales should tip away from the side we pulled weight off of.
Yes, you are being clear, and this doesn't follow. It might help to reread my example. If we reduce a negative selection pressure it doesn't mean that things will shift. In the example I gave there's no real equilibrium, the allele just gets to stay under the radar of evolution because it is so rare evolution doesn't get a chance to act on it. (This is by the way a well-known ev-bio issue, that bad recessive alleles can easily stay at low levels in a population.) Making the allele have a less negative selection pressure won't necessarily change that state....
A recent entry from the West Hunters blog (written by Gregory Cochran and Henry Harpending with whom most LWers are probably already familiar with) caught my eye:
Seems quite coherent. It meshes well with findings that the more children parents have the less they subscribe to nurture, since they finally, possibly for the first time ever, get some hands on experience with the nurture (nurture as in stuff like upbringing not nurture as in lead paint) versus. nature issue. Note that today urban, educated, highly intelligent people are less likley to have children than possibly ever, how is this likley to effect intellectual fashions?
Perhaps somewhat related to this is also the transition in the past 150 years (the time frame depending on where exactly you live) from agricultural communities, that often raised livestock to urban living. What exactly "variation" and "heredity" might mean in a intuitive way thus comes another source short with no clear replacement.