Those are one and the same!
No, they are not. They are fundamentally different. One is a point in a map. The other is a statement regarding the correlation of that map to the actual territory. These are not identical. Nor should they be.
As I have stated elsewhere: Bayesian 'probabilistic beliefs' eschew too greatly the ability of the human mind to make assertions about the nature of the territory.
Perhaps this will help make the point clear. In fact I'm sure it will - it deals with this exact confusion.
The first time I read that page was roughly a year and a half ago.
I am not confused.
I am telling you something that you canot digest; but nothing you have said is inscrutable to me.
These three things together should tell you something. I wno't bother trying to repeat myself about what.
All three of those points are appeals to authority.
LessWrongers as a group are often accused of talking about rationality without putting it into practice (for an elaborated discussion of this see Self-Improvement or Shiny Distraction: Why Less Wrong is anti-Instrumental Rationality). This behavior is particularly insidious because it is self-reinforcing: it will attract more armchair rationalists to LessWrong who will in turn reinforce the trend in an affective death spiral until LessWrong is a community of utilitarian apologists akin to the internet communities of anorexics who congratulate each other on their weight loss. It will be a community where instead of discussing practical ways to "overcome bias" (the original intent of the sequences) we discuss arcane decision theories, who gets to be in our CEV, and the most rational birthday presents (sound familiar?).
A recent attempt to counter this trend or at least make us feel better about it was a series of discussions on "leveling up": accomplishing a set of practical well-defined goals to increment your rationalist "level". It's hard to see how these goals fit into a long-term plan to achieve anything besides self-improvement for its own sake. Indeed, the article begins by priming us with a renaissance-man inspired quote and stands in stark contrast to articles emphasizing practical altruism such as "efficient charity"
So what's the solution? I don't know. However I can tell you a few things about the solution, whatever it may be:
Whatever you may decide to do, be sure it follows these principles. If none of your plans align with these guidelines then construct a new one, on the spot, immediately. Just do something: every moment you sit hundreds of thousands are dying and billions are suffering. Under your judgement your plan can self-modify in the future to overcome its flaws. Become an optimization process; shut up and calculate.
I declare Crocker's rules on the writing style of this post.