You're looking at Less Wrong's discussion board. This includes all posts, including those that haven't been promoted to the front page yet. For more information, see About Less Wrong.

MinibearRex comments on Naming the Highest Virtue of Epistemic Rationality - Less Wrong Discussion

-3 Post author: potato 24 October 2011 11:00PM

You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.

Comments (28)

You are viewing a single comment's thread.

Comment author: MinibearRex 25 October 2011 04:17:08AM 5 points [-]

The general reason Eliezer advocates not naming the highest virtue (as I understand it) is that there may be some type of problem for which bayesian updating (and the scoring rule referred to) yields the wrong answer. This idea sounds rather improbable to me, but there is a non-negligible probability that bayes will yield a wrong answer on some question. Not naming the virtue is supposed to be a reminder that if bayes ever gives the wrong answer, we go with the right answer, not bayes.

Comment author: pengvado 25 October 2011 12:11:08PM 5 points [-]

I think we've already found a type of problem where bayesian updating breaks. Namely, all the anthropic problems that UDT solves. (UDT doesn't say that bayes gives the wrong answer in those cases, but it does say that asking for a probability is the wrong question.)

Comment author: potato 25 October 2011 07:04:23PM 1 point [-]

This makes sense to me. I retract my claims.