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orthonormal comments on Deviant argumentation regarding Monty Hall problem - Less Wrong Discussion
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P=1/2; then you can switch 2/3 of the times you play, but you're still right just 1/3 of the time.
Note that for P>1/2, a rational contestant will win more than 1/3 of the time by switching, but for P<=1/2, the best strategy is just to never switch.
Correct! I can't be bothered to create Misha points, so a point to House Orthonormal.
(House Orthonormal's colors are #010000, #000100, and #000001, which are technically red, green, and blue, but are indistinguishable from black to other houses. The house mascot is the disease-carrying mosquito -- a vector.)