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shminux comments on Whole Brain Emulation: Looking At Progress On C. elgans - Less Wrong Discussion

40 Post author: jkaufman 29 October 2011 03:21PM

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Comment author: shminux 31 October 2011 05:39:45PM *  4 points [-]

I expect to be finished with C. elegans in 2-3 years.

How would you nail those two predictions down into something I could register on PredictionBook.com?

Given the wild unwarranted optimism an average PhD student has in the first year or two of their research, I would expect that David will have enough to graduate 5 or 6 years after he started, but the outcome will not be anywhere close to the original goal, thus

90% that "No whole brain emulation of C. elegans by 2015"

Then again, he is not your average PhD student (the youngest person to ever start a graduate program at MIT -- take that, Sheldon!), so I hope to be proven wrong.

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