davidad comments on Whole Brain Emulation: Looking At Progress On C. elgans - Less Wrong Discussion
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Ah, I see. This is the sort of question that the X Prize Foundation has to wrestle with routinely. It generally takes a few months of work to take even a relatively clear problem statement and boil it down to a purely objective judging procedure. Since I already have an oracle for what I it is I want to develop (does it feel satisfying to me?), and I'm not trying to incentivize other people to do it for me, I'm not convinced that I should do said work for the C. elegans upload project. I'm not even particularly interested in formalizing my prediction for futurological purposes since it's probably planning fallacy anyway. However, I'm open to arguments to the contrary.
Well, that's fine. I've make done with worse predictions than that.