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The evidence I have that the methods developed for the nematode are dramatically insufficient to apply to people:
It's not strong evidence, I agree. I'd like to get a better estimate here.
This lecture on uploading C. elegans is very relevant.
(In short, biophysicists have known where the neurons are located for a long time, but they've only just recently developed the ability to analyze the way they affect one another, and so there's fresh hope of "solving" the worm's brain. The new methods are also pretty awesome.)
My intuition is that most of the difficulty comes from the complexity of the individual cells- we don't understand nearly all of the relevant things they do that affect neural firing. This is basically independent of how many neurons there are or how they're wired, so I expect that correctly emulating a nematode brain would only happen when we're quite close to emulating larger brains.
If the "complicated wiring" problem were the biggest hurdle, then you'd expect a long gap between emulating a nematode and emulating a human.
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