Less Wrong is a community blog devoted to refining the art of human rationality. Please visit our About page for more information.

turchin comments on Anthropic decision theory I: Sleeping beauty and selflessness - Less Wrong Discussion

10 Post author: Stuart_Armstrong 01 November 2011 11:41AM

You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.

Comments (34)

You are viewing a single comment's thread.

Comment author: turchin 31 August 2017 07:33:47PM 0 points [-]

The question, which may have an obvious answer, but always puzzles me in the Sleeping Beauty problem, is the meaning of the word "probability" in the mouth of the Beauty. Is it frequentist, Bayesian or any other probability?

If we define it from expected payoff, we will immediately solve the problem in one way or another? If the sleeping beauty problem is run many times, it would also solve it in direction of 1/3?

Comment author: entirelyuseless 01 September 2017 02:02:52AM 0 points [-]

It is a question about feeling. Do you feel the same towards the two possibilities, or do you feel that one is more real than the other?

Comment author: turchin 01 September 2017 09:13:50AM 0 points [-]

I feel that it is absurd to speak about probabilities of one-time event. Some form of payoff would help quantization and later in this sequence it is discussed.

Comment author: entirelyuseless 01 September 2017 02:18:42PM 0 points [-]

It is not absurd to feel certain that something is going to happen or has happened, even if it is a one-time event. Likewise, it is not absurd to feel completely unsure about what will happen or has happened. These are feelings that people can have, whether you like them or not. As I said -- we are talking about how sure people's beliefs feel, and these can apply to all situations including Sleeping Beauty situations.

Comment author: turchin 01 September 2017 05:18:30PM 0 points [-]

The difference between feeling something as 0.333 and 0.5 is rather small. Anyway I think that feeling is not very appropriate term here, and betting will be more correct, but for betting bigger difference is needed or repated events.

Comment author: entirelyuseless 02 September 2017 01:41:06AM *  0 points [-]

The problem with betting is that it matters whether it is one case of you making the bet or two cases, and you do not know which it is. This is irrelevant to feeling, so feeling is the way to judge the matter.

I agree that it might be hard to notice the difference when it is so small. This is why the case where you have one wakening vs a million wakening is better. Even in that case, it is obvious that the person will feel uncertain whether the coin landed/will land heads or tails, so it is obvious that they are halfers.