I'm not sure that scientific talent is the relevant variable here. More talented folk are more likely to achieve both positive and negative outcomes.

Let's assume that all the other variables are already optimized for to minimize the risk of creating an UFAI. It seems to me that the the relationship between the ability level of the FAI team and probabilities of the possible outcomes must then look something like this:

This chart isn't meant to communicate my actual estimates of the probabilities and crossover points, but just the overall shapes of the curves. Do you disagree with them? (If you want to draw your own version, click here and then click on "Modify This Chart".)

Folk do try to estimate and reduce the risks you mentioned, and to investigate alternative non-FAI interventions.

Has anyone posted SIAI's estimates of those risks?

I would also worry that signalling issues with a diverse external audience can hinder accurate discussion of important topics

That seems reasonable, and given that I'm more interested in the "strategic" as opposed to "tactical" reasoning within SIAI, I'd be happy for it to be communicated through some other means.