Hyena comments on Query the LessWrong Hivemind - Less Wrong Discussion
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If you query Less Wrong, what is the probability that the median response is acceptably close to correct? Please provide confidence intervals, feel free to break out any classes of propositions if you feel that it would be unfair/poor form/not very fun at all to group all classes together but explain why.
We would give you our estimates, but they're probably wrong.
Seriously: For practical real-world questions, my wild guess is that the most-upvoted answer will be "acceptably close to correct" in about two thirds of the questions that are asked. For more nebulous philosophical stuff like many-worlds and qualia, I'd put our accuracy much lower.
Related is the calibration question in the old survey, though I think the staggering accuracy here was a fluke: