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amcknight comments on Query the LessWrong Hivemind - Less Wrong Discussion

18 Post author: D_Malik 08 November 2011 09:37AM

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Comment author: amcknight 09 November 2011 08:20:55PM 1 point [-]

It could be a micron larger than our lightcone. It could be a mile. Or it could be infinite.

I don't know precisely how likely these three options are, but infinite seems astronomically more likely that any arbitrary amount.

Comment author: Logos01 09 November 2011 08:52:41PM 0 points [-]

Given assumptions that seem natural now. I don't actually disagree with those assumptions. But those assumptions are, in fact, assumptions. (Recall the bizarre topology example that permits for negative space beyond our lightcone.)

Given, furthermore, what the original question was -- P(Universe-is-Infinite) -- the question of whether there's even a 'something' out beyond the lightcone remains even-more-relevant.

And as I originally, I believe, said -- the low confidence interval necessary to properly express a Bayesian probability prediction in my opinion makes it far more 'appropriate' to simply say, "There is as yet insufficient evidence for a meaningful reply." (Or, short-handed: "It's unknowable.")