I respectfully suggest that you are underestimating the power of motivated cognition. For example, if you believe a conspiracy thoery, then any Omega-verified denial can be explained because the speaker was not in on the truth (i.e. plausible deniability was set up in advance). Actually, I also think you overestimate the importance of fringe theories in partisan politics.
(and just to satisfy my curiosity, what Bill Clinton thing are you referring to?)
Bill Clinton and Monica Lowinsky. Which reminds me of another application: Lie detection in relationships.
I have just received a survey questionnaire regarding future directions in EU (European Union) research funding, and thought it would be interesting to see how LessWrong would answer the main question:
Imagine that EU funding is available for one ambitious, visionary project extending beyond 2020.