Excuse me while I geek off on a tangent about Bayesian inference and Kolmogorov complexity.
Can one ever expect to be surprised?
If I generate a 100-digit random number, whatever number I get will have had a prior probability of 10^-100, but that does not mean I will be surprised by it. If it turned up all zeros I would be surprised, but that is most unlikely to happen. In this case, my surprise on seeing the generated number might theoretically be measured as the amount by which it can be compressed, the expectation value of which is surely zero.
But what is the expectation of my surprise at the answer to a question of which I cannot think of anything that could even be a possible explanation (including explanations that deny the question)? I don't know how to measure that within the Bayes/Kolmogorov system of ideas.
Inspired by What visionary project would you fund?, I'm wondering about whether there are known blank areas in our knowledge which might turn up surprising knowledge.
Once upon a time, the sun was a mystery. People had a pretty good idea of its mass, and how much chemical energy would be needed to keep it shining. I don't remember how long the sun could last running on chemical energy, but it didn't seem plausible that it could be so new.
It turned out that chemical energy wasn't the only possibility.
I don't get the impression that there was wide appreciation that most of the world was being ignored by scientists because the calculations were too difficult-- until the calculations were made easier.
Do people here expect to be surprised by whatever it takes to understand qualia?