= 27d567bc2d48d9f40e9ccc20ea370b15)
Alicorn comments on PredictionBook: A Short Note - Less Wrong Discussion
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
= 783df68a0f980790206b9ea87794c5b6)
Loading…= b715d02e85f7b3b4ae65ca3d3e450868)
Subscribe to RSS Feed
Powered by Reddit
= f037147d6e6c911a85753b9abdedda8d)
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
Comments (37)
But how does PredictionBook help with that over a little text file where I would write things like "60%: That fleebs are spruckled by 2012; that thus-and-such experiment confirms that glox is a form of spolk; that abritsens are publicly repudiated by Mr. Blafwem before such time as he resigns" or whatever things I might actually be disposed to register predictions about?
Graphing is pretty nice to have, as it fixes a rather more-than-trivial inconvenience; I'm not sure even I care enough to figure out how to munge a raw text file into a proper calibration graph (generated using... what, GraphViz? I don't even know where to start) to look at and go 'oh, I'm really underconfident in the 10/90% range, why is that?'
It doesn't help that aspect that directly at all.
Although I think having the ability to see what other people have predicted helps prevent lies to oneself especially of the form "well, that was just a black swan". When someone else predicted the other direction or simply had much reduced confidence one isn't able to say that.