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JoshuaZ comments on PredictionBook: A Short Note - Less Wrong Discussion

20 Post author: Jayson_Virissimo 10 November 2011 03:10PM

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Comment author: JoshuaZ 10 November 2011 10:32:25PM *  2 points [-]

It doesn't help that aspect that directly at all.

Although I think having the ability to see what other people have predicted helps prevent lies to oneself especially of the form "well, that was just a black swan". When someone else predicted the other direction or simply had much reduced confidence one isn't able to say that.