Mine was also just an off-the-cuff "guesstimate."
I am skeptical that it is possible to estimate the chances of cryonics working in a rigorous quantitative way. There's no way to know what technical hurdles are actually involved to make it work. How can you estimate your chances of success when you have no information about the difficulty of the problem?
Um...there is quite a bit of information. For instance, one major hurdle was ice crystal formation, which has been overcome - but at the price of toxicity (currently unspecified, but - in my moderately informed guesstimate - likely to be related to protein misfolding and membrane distortion).
We also have quite a bit of knowledge of synaptic structure and physiology. I can make a pretty good guess at some of the problems. There are likely many others (many more problems that I cannot predict), but the ones I can are pretty daunting.
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