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timtyler comments on Why an Intelligence Explosion might be a Low-Priority Global Risk - Less Wrong Discussion
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There's around four-billion years worth of hold-ups behind us - and there's probably not much longer to wait.
That doesn't show that most of the risk isn't ahead - that is a complex speculation based on too many factors to fit into this blog comment. The point is that you can't argue from no aliens to major future risks - since we might well be past the bulk of the filter.