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XiXiDu comments on OPERA Confirms: Neutrinos Travel Faster Than Light - Less Wrong Discussion

10 Post author: XiXiDu 18 November 2011 09:58AM

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Comment author: XiXiDu 18 November 2011 03:35:10PM 1 point [-]

If I don't have strong evidence either way on a question I should move my estimates close to 50%...

That would be more than enough to devote a big chunk of the world's resources on friendly AI research, given the associated utility. But you can't just make up completely unfounded conjectures, then claim that we don't have evidence either way but that the utility associated with a negative outcome is huge and we should therefore take it seriously. Because that reasoning will ultimately make you privilege random high-utility outcomes over theories based on empirical evidence.