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Eugine_Nier comments on Connecting Your Beliefs (a call for help) - Less Wrong Discussion
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Just out of interest... assume my far beliefs take the form of a probability distribution of possible future outcomes. How can I be "skeptical" of that? Given that something will happen in the future, all I can do is update in the direction of a different probability distribution.
In other words, which direction am I likely to be biased in?
In the direction of overconfidence, i.e., assigning too much probability mass to your highest probability theory.