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paper-machine comments on Connecting Your Beliefs (a call for help) - Less Wrong Discussion
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Comments (73)
Causal analysis is probably closer to what you're looking for. It displays stability under (small) perturbation of relative probabilities, and it's probably closer to what humans do under the hood than Bayes' theorem. Pearl often observes that humans work with cause and effect with more facility than numerical probabilities.
Numerical stability is definitely something we need in our epistemology. If small errors make the whole thing blow up, it's not any good to us, because we know we make small errors all the time.