What about pushing on neuroscience and neuroimaging hard enough so that when there is enough computing power to do brain-inspired AI or low-fidelity emulations,
I would think that brain-inspired AI would use less hardware (taking advantage of differences between the brain and the digital/serial computer environment, along with our software and machine learning knowledge.
the technology for high-fidelity emulations will already be available, so people will have little reason to do brain-inspired AI or low-fidelity emulations (especially if we heavily publicize the risks).
Different relative weightings of imaginging, comp neurosci, and hardware would seem to give different probability distributions over brain-inspired AI, low-fi WBE, and hi-fi WBE, but I don't see a likely track that goes in the direction of "probably WBE" without a huge (non-competitive) willingness to hold back on the part of future developers.
Or what if we push on neuroimaging alone hard enough so that when neuron simulation technology advances far enough to do brain emulations, high-fidelity brain scans will already be readily available and people won't be tempted to use low-fidelity scans.
Of the three, neuroimaging seems most attractive to push (to me, Robin might say it's the worst because of more abrupt/unequal transitions), but that doesn't mean one should push any of them.
How hard have FHI/SIAI people thought about these issues? (Edit: Not a rhetorical question, it's hard to tell from the outside.)
A number of person-months, but not person-years.
Of the three, neuroimaging seems most attractive to push (to me, Robin might say it's the worst because of more abrupt/unequal transitions), but that doesn't mean one should push any of them.
It looks to me as though Robin would prefer computing power to mature last. Neuroimaging research now could help bring that about.
http://www.overcomingbias.com/2009/11/bad-emulation-advance.html
At the FHI, we are currently working on a project around whole brain emulations (WBE), or uploads. One important question is if getting to whole brain emulations first would make subsequent AGI creation
If you have any opinions or ideas on this, please submit them here. No need to present an organised overall argument; we'll be doing that. What would help most is any unusual suggestion, that we might not have thought of, for how WBE would affect AGI.
EDIT: Many thanks to everyone who suggested ideas here, they've been taken under consideration.