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Larks comments on Should LessWrong be Interested in the Occupy Movements? - Less Wrong Discussion
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p =0.95 you feel more sympathetic to OWS than the Tea Party Movement. If we're going to have posts about politics, they shouldn't have this much mutual information with the author's political views.
p = 0.99. Should we make a prediction book?
Actually, now that I think about it, that's too high. The probability of him being a troll alone should be at least 1%. I'm revising mine to 0.95.